luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Bears at Chargers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Bears 30–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 76% favorites.

Final

Chicago Bears 13
Los Angeles Chargers 30

October 29, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −9.5

Luck index +37 Chargers lucky · −37 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Chargers win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 37 LAC 14
  2. 2 CHI 16 LAC 3
  3. 3 CHI 23 LAC 16
  4. 4 CHI 16 LAC 13
  5. 5 CHI 28 LAC 30
  6. 6 CHI 16 LAC 21
  7. 7 CHI 16 LAC 24
  8. 8 CHI 7 LAC 20
  9. 9 CHI 17 LAC 34
  10. 10 CHI 13 LAC 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 37% of them, Chargers 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+5.1%
Bears by 9–169.4%
Bears by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Chargers by 1–826.2%
Chargers by 9–1619.5%
Chargers by 17+17.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 7.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Dicker, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% LAC CHI: Punt
2 Q1 11:32 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:08 K. Blasingame dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +2% LAC CHI: Punt
5 Q1 5:17 Fair Catch Interference on the Bears (Velus Jones Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 399 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +3% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:42 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CHI CHI: Turnover
7 Q2 12:50 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LAC CHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:37 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1577 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +3% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 12% · Chargers 88%

Final margin
Chargers by 17
Luck in points
9.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Bears 37% · Chargers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Bears · Chargers

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