AFC Championship 2023 · January 28, 2024
Chiefs at Ravens, AFC Championship 2023: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Ravens 17–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Ravens: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:20 left): Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Kansas City Chiefs | 17 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Chiefs lucky · −29 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chiefs win 7, Ravens win 3.
- 1 KC 38 BAL 13
- 2 KC 29 BAL 10
- 3 KC 30 BAL 16
- 4 KC 37 BAL 26
- 5 KC 28 BAL 20
- 6 KC 23 BAL 19
- 7 KC 23 BAL 21
- 8 KC 27 BAL 31
- 9 KC 17 BAL 27
- 10 KC 19 BAL 38
Your call
Did the Chiefs earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Ravens
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.18 | worse by 0.14 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.04 | worse by 0.06 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.13 | worse by 0.03 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.01 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chiefs win 71% of them, Ravens 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chiefs by 17+ | 22.9% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 15.9% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 52 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Tucker, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Chiefs 3 for 30 yards, Ravens 8 for 95 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:51 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards | +1% KC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 15 yards | +5% KC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 15 yards | +2% KC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BAL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% BAL +6.2 pts |
| Q3 8:34 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards | +1% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:11 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% KC +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Taunting on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 15 yards | +5% KC +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards | +2% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Roquan Smith), 15 yards | +1% KC +0.5 pts |
Chiefs penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | N. Agholor dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 78 catchable balls before this | +7% KC | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:11 | The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:18 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 9:33 | The Ravens fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% KC | BAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:23 | The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +9% BAL | KC: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:20 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% BAL | BAL: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 0:49 | Taunting on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 968 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +5% KC | KC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | The Ravens fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% KC | BAL: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Thuney (KC G), out · 0.7 pts
- Willie Gay Jr. (KC LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chiefs 34% · Ravens 66%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 7
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Chiefs 71% · Ravens 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2023 games · 
Chiefs · 
Ravens
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