luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · November 30, 2023

Seahawks at Cowboys, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Seahawks 41–35 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.5 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:37 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 8, worth 24 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 35
Dallas Cowboys 41

November 30, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −9.5

Luck index +31 Cowboys lucky · −31 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 34 DAL 17
  2. 2 SEA 35 DAL 27
  3. 3 SEA 16 DAL 13
  4. 4 SEA 22 DAL 24
  5. 5 SEA 14 DAL 18
  6. 6 SEA 10 DAL 17
  7. 7 SEA 20 DAL 30
  8. 8 SEA 10 DAL 24
  9. 9 SEA 6 DAL 24
  10. 10 SEA 16 DAL 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 31% of them, Cowboys 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+4.3%
Seahawks by 9–168.0%
Seahawks by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.9%
Cowboys by 1–825.6%
Cowboys by 9–1619.2%
Cowboys by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 32 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:37 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +24% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:01 J. Myers missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for himDelay of Game on the Seahawks, 6 yardsPre-snap flags +13% DAL SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:40 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 29 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1551 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% DAL SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:51 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1043 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +18% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:02 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% DAL SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:08 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 229 catchable balls before this +18% SEA DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 7:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +11% DAL SEA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 31% · Cowboys 69%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
1.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 31% · Cowboys 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Seahawks · Cowboys

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