luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Lions at Saints, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Saints 33–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:14 left): D. Montgomery dropped a catchable pass, worth 13 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Detroit Lions 33
New Orleans Saints 28

December 3, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Lions −4

Luck index +33 Lions lucky · −33 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 DET 35 NO 7
  2. 2 DET 36 NO 16
  3. 3 DET 35 NO 19
  4. 4 DET 42 NO 31
  5. 5 DET 41 NO 33
  6. 6 DET 20 NO 16
  7. 7 DET 19 NO 17
  8. 8 DET 26 NO 29
  9. 9 DET 13 NO 23
  10. 10 DET 6 NO 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 67% of them, Saints 33%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+19.8%
Lions by 9–1619.2%
Lions by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation2.7%
Saints by 1–817.5%
Saints by 9–169.8%
Saints by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 3.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:52 The Saints converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 The Saints fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:56 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:14 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedD. Montgomery dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +13% NO DET: Punt
6 Q4 3:07 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DET NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:01 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DET –
8 Q4 2:48 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 49% · Saints 51%

Final margin
Lions by 5
Luck in points
8.9 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Lions 67% · Saints 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Lions · Saints

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