luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Lions at Saints, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Saints 33–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:48 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 7, worth 12 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 33
New Orleans Saints 28

December 3, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Lions −4

Luck index +18 Lions about even · −18 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 DET 46 NO 15
  2. 2 DET 49 NO 26
  3. 3 DET 39 NO 20
  4. 4 DET 38 NO 24
  5. 5 DET 17 NO 7
  6. 6 DET 31 NO 24
  7. 7 DET 42 NO 38
  8. 8 DET 29 NO 27
  9. 9 DET 23 NO 27
  10. 10 DET 19 NO 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 82% of them, Saints 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+34.4%
Lions by 9–1622.0%
Lions by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation0.9%
Saints by 1–810.3%
Saints by 9–165.2%
Saints by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 5, without the luck Saints by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 6 for 45 yards, Saints 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:57 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q1 12:28 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 15 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q1 0:56 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Isaac Yiadom), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 12:31 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 11:10 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 5:30 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Anthony Pittman), 10 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 4:41 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 9:21 False Start on the Lions (Sam LaPorta), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 4:27 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 0:07 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.1 pts
Q4 10:23 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Bruce Irvin), 15 yards +3% NO +1.5 pts
Q4 6:08 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yards +4% DET +0.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:28 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2660 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +5% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:15 The Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +6% DET NO: Punt
3 Q1 10:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Saints fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:56 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +7% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:14 D. Montgomery dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +11% NO DET: Punt
7 Q4 3:01 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% DET –
8 Q4 2:48 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 49% · Saints 51%

Final margin
Lions by 5
Luck in points
8.0 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 82% · Saints 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Lions · Saints

More from Week 13 2023