luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

49ers at Buccaneers, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the 49ers 30–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.1 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:46 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 19 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

October 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +32 Buccaneers lucky · −32 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 SF 30 TB 13
  2. 2 SF 17 TB 10
  3. 3 SF 27 TB 24
  4. 4 SF 26 TB 28
  5. 5 SF 17 TB 21
  6. 6 SF 6 TB 13
  7. 7 SF 27 TB 38
  8. 8 SF 10 TB 23
  9. 9 SF 20 TB 38
  10. 10 SF 10 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 32% of them, Buccaneers 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+4.5%
49ers by 9–168.7%
49ers by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation3.9%
Buccaneers by 1–825.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.6%
Buccaneers by 17+21.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 7.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:46 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% TB SF: Field goal
2 Q1 8:35 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% TB SF: Field goal
3 Q2 3:38 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q3 8:36 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2444 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:34 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% TB SF: Field goal
6 Q3 4:21 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:46 C. McLaughlin missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 55 of 72 from 45+ before +7% SF TB: Field goal
8 Q4 5:52 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on the 49ers, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +13% TB SF: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zyon McCollum (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.4 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Patrick Taylor (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 2% · Buccaneers 98%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 11
Luck in points
3.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 32% · Buccaneers 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 49ers · Buccaneers

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