luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Seahawks at Jaguars, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Jaguars 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.5 points to the Jaguars.

An off day for the Jaguars: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:38 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 16, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 12

October 12, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −1.5

Luck index +6 Seahawks about even · −6 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 37 JAX 0
  2. 2 SEA 57 JAX 30
  3. 3 SEA 47 JAX 24
  4. 4 SEA 24 JAX 6
  5. 5 SEA 34 JAX 20
  6. 6 SEA 29 JAX 17
  7. 7 SEA 31 JAX 21
  8. 8 SEA 37 JAX 31
  9. 9 SEA 12 JAX 10
  10. 10 SEA 21 JAX 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

41 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.12 worse by 0.10
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.09 better by 0.11
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.09 worse by 0.11
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.14 better by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 94% of them, Jaguars 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+60.3%
Seahawks by 9–1619.4%
Seahawks by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jaguars by 1–84.3%
Jaguars by 9–161.4%
Jaguars by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes even.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Little, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds made · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:22 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:38 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:41 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% SEA JAX: Punt
4 Q2 7:25 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% SEA SEA: Punt
5 Q2 2:00 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
6 Q2 1:08 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% SEA JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q3 1:27 Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 327 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +11% SEA SEA: Punt
8 Q4 9:22 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 132 catchable balls before this +9% SEA JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Hainsey (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Riq Woolen (SEA CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 35% · Jaguars 65%

Final margin
Seahawks by 8
Luck in points
8.0 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 94% · Jaguars 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Seahawks · Jaguars

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