Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025
Cowboys at Panthers, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Cowboys 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:31 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 4, worth 24 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 27 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Panthers lucky · −26 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Panthers win 7.
- 1 DAL 19 CAR 3
- 2 DAL 17 CAR 10
- 3 DAL 20 CAR 17
- 4 DAL 17 CAR 19
- 5 DAL 20 CAR 24
- 6 DAL 10 CAR 17
- 7 DAL 13 CAR 23
- 8 DAL 24 CAR 38
- 9 DAL 0 CAR 19
- 10 DAL 14 CAR 41
Your call
Did the Panthers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 26% of them, Panthers 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 27.3% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 22.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Fitzgerald, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 100% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 55 yds made · 60% expected
- B. Aubrey, 28 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 37 yards, Panthers 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Rico Dowdle), 13 yards | +3% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:26 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:28 | False Start on the Cowboys (Javonte Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 12 yards | +6% DAL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 2:54 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Reddy Steward), 5 yards | +2% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:08 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 7 yards | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:25 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jay Toia), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:53 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:34 | Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Christian Rozeboom), 15 yards | +10% DAL +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:36 | False Start on the Panthers (Rico Dowdle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:26 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Kaiir Elam), 12 yards | +7% CAR +1.6 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:13 | The Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsUnnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Rico Dowdle), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 | +14% DAL | CAR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:03 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:44 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +12% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:38 | The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:34 | Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Christian Rozeboom), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2995 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +10% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:38 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:36 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +9% DAL | CAR: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:31 | The Panthers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +24% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
- Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out · 0.3 pts
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- KaVontae Turpin (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Malik Hooker (DAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tyler Booker (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Jack Sanborn (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 13% · Panthers 87%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 26% · Panthers 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Cowboys · 
Panthers
More from Week 6 2025
- Eagles at Giants NYG 34–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jets DEN 13–11 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 85% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 23–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 29–27 · replay 73% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 17–3 · replay 83% for the winner
- Patriots at Saints NE 25–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jaguars SEA 20–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Titans at Raiders LV 20–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 93% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers TB 30–19 · replay 80% for the winner
- Lions at Chiefs KC 30–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Falcons ATL 24–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bears at Commanders CHI 25–24 · replay 35% for the winner