luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 13, 2025

Bears at Commanders, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Commanders 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Commanders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 27 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:58 left): Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Chicago Bears 25
Washington Commanders 24

October 13, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −5.5

Luck index +65 Bears very lucky · −65 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 3, Commanders win 7.

  1. 1 CHI 24 WAS 7
  2. 2 CHI 19 WAS 10
  3. 3 CHI 13 WAS 10
  4. 4 CHI 24 WAS 26
  5. 5 CHI 16 WAS 20
  6. 6 CHI 24 WAS 31
  7. 7 CHI 19 WAS 29
  8. 8 CHI 20 WAS 35
  9. 9 CHI 16 WAS 39
  10. 10 CHI 6 WAS 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 35% of them, Commanders 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+5.7%
Bears by 9–169.3%
Bears by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation2.5%
Commanders by 1–825.1%
Commanders by 9–1620.4%
Commanders by 17+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 1, without the luck Commanders by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 47 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Moody, 48 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Gay, 50 yds missed · 65% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 62% expected
  • J. Moody, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Moody, 48 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • J. Moody, 38 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 9 for 84 yards, Commanders 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:09 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 8:41 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Montez Sweat), 15 yards +8% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 3:39 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +2.4 pts
Q1 2:19 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 11:46 Face Mask on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.7 pts
Q3 12:13 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Jayden Daniels), 10 yards +4% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 11:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Dominique Robinson), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 11:48 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yards +2% CHI +0.8 pts
Q3 8:58 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% WAS +3.7 pts
Q3 8:05 Illegal Blindside Block on the Commanders (Jordan Magee), 15 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 2:56 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q4 11:27 Illegal Formation on the Commanders (Colson Yankoff), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q4 8:52 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yards +7% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 7:57 Offensive Offside on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% WAS +1.6 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:14 M. Gay missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 53 of 77 from 45+ before +12% CHI WAS: End of half
2 Q3 12:03 M. Gay made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 53 of 78 from 45+ before +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:58 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 J. Moody had a 48-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 15 of 26 from 45+ before +12% WAS CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:57 Offensive Offside on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 6072 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +12% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 4:42 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% WAS WAS: Turnover
7 Q4 3:10 The Commanders fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CHI –
8 Q4 0:03 J. Moody made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +13% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Brandon Coleman (WAS T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (CHI DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cairo Santos (CHI K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 38% · Commanders 62%

Final margin
Bears by 1
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Bears 35% · Commanders 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Bears · Commanders

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