luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Broncos vs Jets, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jets 13–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:23 left): the Jets fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Denver Broncos 13
New York Jets 11

October 12, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −7.5

Luck index +11 Broncos about even · −11 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 DEN 41 NYJ 13
  2. 2 DEN 29 NYJ 7
  3. 3 DEN 24 NYJ 6
  4. 4 DEN 31 NYJ 15
  5. 5 DEN 19 NYJ 7
  6. 6 DEN 23 NYJ 13
  7. 7 DEN 13 NYJ 6
  8. 8 DEN 10 NYJ 7
  9. 9 DEN 15 NYJ 13
  10. 10 DEN 10 NYJ 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 89% of them, Jets 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+40.2%
Broncos by 9–1626.1%
Broncos by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation1.4%
Jets by 1–88.6%
Jets by 9–161.9%
Jets by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Jets: the final margin was Broncos by 2, without the luck Broncos by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • W. Lutz, 57 yds made · 61% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 27 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 6 for 37 yards, Jets 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:47 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 9:36 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 3:33 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q2 8:33 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 5:04 False Start on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 4:49 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% NYJ +3.4 pts
Q3 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 3 yards +16% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q4 13:42 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 10 yards +1% DEN +0.7 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:42 The Broncos converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:49 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% NYJ NYJ: End of half
3 Q3 9:04 J. McLaughlin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 58 catchable balls before this +9% NYJ DEN: Punt
4 Q3 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 3 yardsJudgment calls +16% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 8:15 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +17% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 3:19 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% NYJ DEN: Punt
7 Q4 2:23 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +30% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:14 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +26% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 79% · Jets 21%

Final margin
Broncos by 2
Luck in points
3.2 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 89% · Jets 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Broncos · Jets

More from Week 6 2025