luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Saints at Browns, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Browns 17–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.7 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:57 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 17 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Cleveland Browns 10

December 24, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +47 Saints lucky · −47 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 NO 27 CLE 7
  2. 2 NO 17 CLE 3
  3. 3 NO 16 CLE 7
  4. 4 NO 24 CLE 19
  5. 5 NO 17 CLE 15
  6. 6 NO 17 CLE 19
  7. 7 NO 28 CLE 33
  8. 8 NO 10 CLE 19
  9. 9 NO 10 CLE 23
  10. 10 NO 9 CLE 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 53% of them, Browns 47%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+9.8%
Saints by 9–1614.5%
Saints by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation7.3%
Browns by 1–821.6%
Browns by 9–1615.7%
Browns by 17+7.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 3.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 30 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:57 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% CLE NO: Punt
2 Q2 11:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2124 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +9% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 10:42 The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q2 5:46 The Browns converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q3 1:34 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:00 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% NO CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:26 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 64% · Browns 36%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
3.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Saints 53% · Browns 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Saints · Browns

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