luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Commanders at 49ers, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Commanders 37–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.6 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:44 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
San Francisco 49ers 37

December 24, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +9 49ers about even · −9 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 34 SF 28
  2. 2 WAS 24 SF 26
  3. 3 WAS 14 SF 19
  4. 4 WAS 30 SF 38
  5. 5 WAS 20 SF 31
  6. 6 WAS 28 SF 43
  7. 7 WAS 14 SF 32
  8. 8 WAS 13 SF 34
  9. 9 WAS 10 SF 36
  10. 10 WAS 14 SF 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 9% of them, 49ers 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+0.7%
Commanders by 9–162.0%
Commanders by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation1.9%
49ers by 1–816.3%
49ers by 9–1620.2%
49ers by 17+52.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 19.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Gould, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Gould, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedJ. Dotson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 26 catchable balls before this +9% SF WAS: Punt
2 Q1 11:26 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% SF SF: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 8:47 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% WAS SF: Punt
4 Q1 2:52 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:37 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% SF WAS: Punt
6 Q2 3:03 The 49ers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% WAS SF: End of half
7 Q3 10:44 The 49ers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +14% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:52 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedR. McCloud dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 15 catchable balls before this +7% WAS SF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by b.purdy · 5.5 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kamren Curl (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 17
Luck in points
2.6 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 9% · 49ers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Commanders · 49ers

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