luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · December 22, 2022–December 26

Week 16 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Giants 27–24 in a game they win 33% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 16 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 26–20 @ Dolphins 40% 60% Coin flip
Saints 17–10 @ Browns 41% 53% Coin flip
Texans 19–14 @ Titans 41% 35% Lucky
Rams 51–14 vs Broncos 41% 93% Deserved
Jaguars 19–3 @ Jets 43% 93% Deserved
Panthers 37–23 vs Lions 43% 89% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Vikings W 27–24 vs Giants 33% +67
2 Texans W 19–14 @ Titans 35% +65
3 Saints W 17–10 @ Browns 53% +47
4 Cowboys W 40–34 vs Eagles 57% +43
5 Packers W 26–20 @ Dolphins 60% +40
6 Bengals W 22–18 @ Patriots 71% +29
7 Ravens W 17–9 vs Falcons 79% +21
8 Steelers W 13–10 vs Raiders 79% +21
9 Panthers W 37–23 vs Lions 89% +11
10 Buccaneers W 19–16 @ Cardinals 91% +9
11 Chargers W 20–3 @ Colts 91% +9
12 49ers W 37–20 vs Commanders 91% +9
13 Jaguars W 19–3 @ Jets 93% +7
14 Rams W 51–14 vs Broncos 93% +7
15 Chiefs W 24–10 vs Seahawks 96% +4
16 Bills W 35–13 @ Bears 96% +4
17 Bears L 13–35 vs Bills 4% −4
18 Seahawks L 10–24 @ Chiefs 4% −4
19 Broncos L 14–51 @ Rams 7% −7
20 Jets L 3–19 vs Jaguars 7% −7
21 Commanders L 20–37 @ 49ers 9% −9
22 Colts L 3–20 vs Chargers 9% −9
23 Cardinals L 16–19 vs Buccaneers 9% −9
24 Lions L 23–37 @ Panthers 11% −11
25 Raiders L 10–13 @ Steelers 21% −21
26 Falcons L 9–17 @ Ravens 21% −21
27 Patriots L 18–22 vs Bengals 29% −29
28 Dolphins L 20–26 vs Packers 40% −40
29 Eagles L 34–40 @ Cowboys 43% −43
30 Browns L 10–17 vs Saints 47% −47
31 Titans L 14–19 vs Texans 65% −65
32 Giants L 24–27 @ Vikings 67% −67