luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Texans at Titans, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 19–14, but the Titans played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 8.2 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Titans fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 51 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Houston Texans 19
Tennessee Titans 14

December 24, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +66 Texans very lucky · −66 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Titans win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 30 TEN 13
  2. 2 HOU 24 TEN 14
  3. 3 HOU 6 TEN 3
  4. 4 HOU 14 TEN 16
  5. 5 HOU 19 TEN 24
  6. 6 HOU 23 TEN 31
  7. 7 HOU 16 TEN 27
  8. 8 HOU 3 TEN 17
  9. 9 HOU 3 TEN 20
  10. 10 HOU 3 TEN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 34% of them, Titans 66%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+4.9%
Texans by 9–1610.2%
Texans by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation4.4%
Titans by 1–822.9%
Titans by 9–1620.9%
Titans by 17+21.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:44 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1907 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +18% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q3 14:43 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 7:10 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% TEN HOU: Punt
5 Q4 7:27 K. Fairbairn made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +19% TEN HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:39 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% HOU TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:15 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1054 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +51% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:05 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +41% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 6.9 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 66% · Titans 34%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
10.0 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Texans 34% · Titans 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Texans · Titans

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