luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Texans at Titans, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 19–14, but the replays lean toward the Titans: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 43 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 19
Tennessee Titans 14

December 24, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +65 Texans very lucky · −65 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Titans win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 37 TEN 20
  2. 2 HOU 19 TEN 10
  3. 3 HOU 13 TEN 10
  4. 4 HOU 17 TEN 19
  5. 5 HOU 10 TEN 15
  6. 6 HOU 7 TEN 14
  7. 7 HOU 16 TEN 26
  8. 8 HOU 14 TEN 27
  9. 9 HOU 9 TEN 27
  10. 10 HOU 6 TEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 35% of them, Titans 65%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+5.0%
Texans by 9–1610.0%
Texans by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation4.5%
Titans by 1–824.2%
Titans by 9–1620.2%
Titans by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 5, without the luck Titans by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 35 yards, Titans 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:16 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% HOU +1.9 pts
Q1 2:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% HOU +2.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% TEN +4.2 pts
Q2 6:45 Defensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:27 False Start on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 7:29 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 13:44 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 0:15 Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards +16% TEN +1.8 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:44 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1907 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +18% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 14:43 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 12:30 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% TEN HOU: Turnover
6 Q4 1:39 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +11% HOU TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:15 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1054 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +33% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:05 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +43% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 6.9 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 52% · Titans 48%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
10.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 35% · Titans 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Texans · Titans

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