luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 25, 2022

Packers at Dolphins, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Dolphins 26–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:41 left): Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 26
Miami Dolphins 20

December 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3.5

Luck index +39 Packers lucky · −39 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Dolphins win 4.

  1. 1 GB 34 MIA 10
  2. 2 GB 38 MIA 21
  3. 3 GB 29 MIA 17
  4. 4 GB 29 MIA 21
  5. 5 GB 29 MIA 24
  6. 6 GB 16 MIA 14
  7. 7 GB 29 MIA 31
  8. 8 GB 30 MIA 37
  9. 9 GB 20 MIA 31
  10. 10 GB 6 MIA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 61% of them, Dolphins 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+17.5%
Packers by 9–1616.8%
Packers by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation3.0%
Dolphins by 1–817.3%
Dolphins by 9–1612.9%
Dolphins by 17+8.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • M. Crosby, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Crosby, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Crosby, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:14 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:30 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% MIA GB: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% MIA MIA: Turnover
4 Q4 13:20 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% GB GB: Field goal
5 Q4 8:56 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% MIA MIA: Turnover
6 Q4 6:41 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1605 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +19% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q4 6:09 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% GB MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 1:34 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 69% · Dolphins 31%

Final margin
Packers by 6
Luck in points
1.0 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 61% · Dolphins 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Packers · Dolphins

More from Week 16 2022