luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 21, 2023

Saints at Rams, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Saints 30–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:00 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

New Orleans Saints 22
Los Angeles Rams 30

December 21, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +20 Rams about even · −20 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 NO 37 LA 24
  2. 2 NO 33 LA 30
  3. 3 NO 19 LA 21
  4. 4 NO 20 LA 24
  5. 5 NO 13 LA 20
  6. 6 NO 13 LA 23
  7. 7 NO 24 LA 37
  8. 8 NO 9 LA 26
  9. 9 NO 20 LA 41
  10. 10 NO 7 LA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 20% of them, Rams 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+2.4%
Saints by 9–165.5%
Saints by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation2.8%
Rams by 1–827.8%
Rams by 9–1621.2%
Rams by 17+29.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 8, without the luck Rams by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 47 yds missed · 78% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 20 yards, Rams 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:36 False Start on the Rams (Davis Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Pete Werner), 6 yards +4% LA +1.9 pts
Q2 9:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% LA +1.3 pts
Q3 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards 0% NO +1.3 pts
Q4 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NO +3.3 pts
Q4 1:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:16 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Pete Werner), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2014 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +4% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:32 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:38 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% LA NO: Punt
5 Q2 3:57 L. Havrisik missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +5% NO LA: Punt
6 Q2 1:54 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% NO LA: Punt
7 Q2 1:04 C. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 171 catchable balls before this +8% LA NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:00 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% LA NO: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 3% · Rams 97%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
1.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 20% · Rams 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Saints · Rams

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