luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 21, 2023

Saints at Rams, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Saints 30–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:00 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

New Orleans Saints 22
Los Angeles Rams 30

December 21, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +36 Rams lucky · −36 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 NO 34 LA 14
  2. 2 NO 33 LA 23
  3. 3 NO 37 LA 31
  4. 4 NO 32 LA 30
  5. 5 NO 21 LA 23
  6. 6 NO 19 LA 23
  7. 7 NO 23 LA 31
  8. 8 NO 21 LA 34
  9. 9 NO 21 LA 37
  10. 10 NO 17 LA 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 36% of them, Rams 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+5.3%
Saints by 9–169.3%
Saints by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Rams by 1–826.5%
Rams by 9–1620.3%
Rams by 17+16.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 47 yds missed · 78% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:16 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% LA NO: Punt
2 Q1 8:16 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:32 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:26 L. Havrisik made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +6% NO LA: Missed field goal
5 Q2 3:57 L. Havrisik missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +5% NO LA: Punt
6 Q2 1:04 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedC. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 171 catchable balls before this +10% LA NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 1:00 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% LA NO: End of half
8 Q3 8:38 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% LA NO: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 4% · Rams 96%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
1.3 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 36% · Rams 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Saints · Rams

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