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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Cardinals at Bears, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Cardinals 27–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Chicago Bears 27

December 24, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +37 Bears lucky · −37 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 4, Bears win 6.

  1. 1 ARI 51 CHI 31
  2. 2 ARI 23 CHI 12
  3. 3 ARI 27 CHI 21
  4. 4 ARI 30 CHI 28
  5. 5 ARI 15 CHI 17
  6. 6 ARI 20 CHI 25
  7. 7 ARI 14 CHI 21
  8. 8 ARI 12 CHI 24
  9. 9 ARI 21 CHI 37
  10. 10 ARI 6 CHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 37% of them, Bears 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+5.2%
Cardinals by 9–1610.3%
Cardinals by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation3.3%
Bears by 1–827.5%
Bears by 9–1618.7%
Bears by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Bears by 11, without the luck Bears by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Santos, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 2 for 8 yards, Bears 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:43 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 3 yards, wiping out the play +7% CHI +2.7 pts
Q2 12:49 False Start on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Touch Kick on the Bears (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards 0% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 0:54 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% ARI +1.2 pts
Q3 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +3.8 pts
Q4 11:22 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 7:36 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 5 yards +3% ARI +2.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% ARI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:02 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +3% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 6:43 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 363 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:58 The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:22 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:35 D. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 159 catchable balls before this +5% ARI CHI: Punt
7 Q3 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q4 6:37 The Cardinals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% CHI ARI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Yannick Ngakoue (CHI DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyzir White (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carter O'Donnell (ARI T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Woods (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 11
Luck in points
3.4 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 37% · Bears 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Cardinals · Bears

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