luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Cardinals at Bears, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Cardinals 27–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.4 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Chicago Bears 27

December 24, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +22 Bears about even · −22 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Bears win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 27 CHI 13
  2. 2 ARI 28 CHI 24
  3. 3 ARI 29 CHI 31
  4. 4 ARI 12 CHI 16
  5. 5 ARI 13 CHI 20
  6. 6 ARI 13 CHI 23
  7. 7 ARI 3 CHI 16
  8. 8 ARI 20 CHI 37
  9. 9 ARI 17 CHI 37
  10. 10 ARI 10 CHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 22% of them, Bears 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+2.1%
Cardinals by 9–166.8%
Cardinals by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Bears by 1–827.4%
Bears by 9–1620.3%
Bears by 17+30.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 16.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. Santos, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% ARI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:02 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +3% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 6:43 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 363 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:58 The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:22 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:35 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedD. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 159 catchable balls before this +5% ARI CHI: Punt
7 Q3 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q4 6:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Yannick Ngakoue (CHI DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyzir White (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carter O'Donnell (ARI T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Woods (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 11
Luck in points
5.3 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 22% · Bears 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Cardinals · Bears

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