luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 25, 2023

Giants at Eagles, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 33–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:21 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 25
Philadelphia Eagles 33

December 25, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −14

Luck index +15 Eagles about even · −15 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 20 PHI 14
  2. 2 NYG 10 PHI 13
  3. 3 NYG 22 PHI 27
  4. 4 NYG 13 PHI 21
  5. 5 NYG 14 PHI 24
  6. 6 NYG 7 PHI 20
  7. 7 NYG 22 PHI 38
  8. 8 NYG 16 PHI 34
  9. 9 NYG 7 PHI 28
  10. 10 NYG 0 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 15% of them, Eagles 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.7%
Giants by 9–163.4%
Giants by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
Eagles by 1–824.9%
Eagles by 9–1623.3%
Eagles by 17+36.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 8.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:01 The Eagles converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 1:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 2:50 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% PHI NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:53 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% NYG PHI: Punt
5 Q3 12:15 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q3 0:21 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsHorse Collar Tackle on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 1 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +22% NYG PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:11 The Eagles converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (PHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Bullock (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 15% · Eagles 85%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
0.3 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 15% · Eagles 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Giants · Eagles

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