luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Browns at Texans, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 36–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:04 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cleveland Browns 36
Houston Texans 22

December 24, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +4 Browns about even · −4 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 CLE 51 HOU 14
  2. 2 CLE 37 HOU 7
  3. 3 CLE 38 HOU 12
  4. 4 CLE 38 HOU 16
  5. 5 CLE 28 HOU 10
  6. 6 CLE 16 HOU 0
  7. 7 CLE 20 HOU 6
  8. 8 CLE 23 HOU 13
  9. 9 CLE 20 HOU 14
  10. 10 CLE 24 HOU 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 96% of them, Texans 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+71.8%
Browns by 9–1616.6%
Browns by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation0.6%
Texans by 1–82.5%
Texans by 9–160.7%
Texans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 14, without the luck Browns by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Browns 9 for 55 yards, Texans 10 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:37 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:14 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.2 pts
Q1 10:48 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 1:58 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Matthew Adams), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 1:42 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q1 0:28 Offensive Offside on the Texans (Robert Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +1.9 pts
Q2 9:44 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% HOU +2.5 pts
Q2 9:14 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 9:08 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 7:16 Illegal Bat on the Texans, 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 2:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +2% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 4:09 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 12:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Desmond King), 1 yard 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 12:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Christian Harris), 0 yards 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q4 6:08 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Alex Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +1.1 pts
Q4 4:10 Face Mask on the Texans (Khalil Davis), 15 yards 0% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 0:38 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:55 K. Hunt dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 51 catchable balls before this +4% HOU CLE: Punt
3 Q1 1:37 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 12:04 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 9:47 N. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 103 catchable balls before this +4% CLE HOU: Punt
7 Q2 9:44 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1685 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q2 6:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 4.7 pts
  • Will Anderson (HOU DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Cashman (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (CLE DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 99% · Texans 1%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
6.0 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 96% · Texans 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Browns · Texans

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