luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Browns at Texans, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 36–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:04 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cleveland Browns 36
Houston Texans 22

December 24, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +5 Browns about even · −5 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 CLE 39 HOU 3
  2. 2 CLE 31 HOU 3
  3. 3 CLE 34 HOU 13
  4. 4 CLE 35 HOU 17
  5. 5 CLE 17 HOU 0
  6. 6 CLE 20 HOU 6
  7. 7 CLE 29 HOU 17
  8. 8 CLE 23 HOU 13
  9. 9 CLE 20 HOU 14
  10. 10 CLE 19 HOU 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 95% of them, Texans 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+68.7%
Browns by 9–1617.8%
Browns by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Texans by 1–83.1%
Texans by 9–160.7%
Texans by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:37 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q2 12:04 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 9:44 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1685 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 7:57 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% CLE HOU: Punt
7 Q2 6:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:05 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% HOU CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 4.7 pts
  • Will Anderson (HOU DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Cashman (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (CLE DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 98% · Texans 2%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
7.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 95% · Texans 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Browns · Texans

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