luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Colts at Falcons, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Colts 29–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:31 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 10
Atlanta Falcons 29

December 24, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +8 Falcons about even · −8 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 IND 16 ATL 10
  2. 2 IND 17 ATL 20
  3. 3 IND 7 ATL 12
  4. 4 IND 14 ATL 23
  5. 5 IND 21 ATL 33
  6. 6 IND 7 ATL 21
  7. 7 IND 14 ATL 31
  8. 8 IND 10 ATL 31
  9. 9 IND 7 ATL 31
  10. 10 IND 7 ATL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 8% of them, Falcons 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.7%
Colts by 9–161.7%
Colts by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Falcons by 1–816.6%
Falcons by 9–1621.7%
Falcons by 17+52.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 18.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Gay, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 25 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3735 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:23 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% IND IND: Punt
4 Q2 6:05 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 3:31 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedB. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +9% IND ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 2:38 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% ATL IND: Punt
7 Q2 1:24 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q3 3:47 The Falcons converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Kentavius Street (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Darrell Baker (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Falcons 100%

Final margin
Falcons by 19
Luck in points
0.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 8% · Falcons 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Colts · Falcons

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