luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Patriots, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 28–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 14
New England Patriots 28

January 3, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +43 Patriots lucky · −43 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 24 NE 3
  2. 2 NYJ 19 NE 7
  3. 3 NYJ 16 NE 10
  4. 4 NYJ 19 NE 17
  5. 5 NYJ 24 NE 26
  6. 6 NYJ 27 NE 31
  7. 7 NYJ 13 NE 20
  8. 8 NYJ 17 NE 28
  9. 9 NYJ 10 NE 27
  10. 10 NYJ 7 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 43% of them, Patriots 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+7.4%
Jets by 9–1613.1%
Jets by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.3%
Patriots by 1–825.0%
Patriots by 9–1617.3%
Patriots by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 14, without the luck Patriots by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jets 3 for 30 yards, Patriots 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 14:18 False Start on the Patriots (Devin Asiasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 2:22 False Start on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 10:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Terrence Brooks), 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 8:35 Illegal Formation on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 3:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Jeff Smith), 10 yards +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 1:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots, 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 11:40 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Joejuan Williams), 7 yards +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 12:11 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yards +2% NE +1.6 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:10 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:42 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% NYJ NE: Punt
3 Q2 9:34 The Patriots converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% NE NE: Punt
4 Q2 2:46 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:49 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% NYJ NE: Punt
6 Q3 9:42 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE NE: Punt
7 Q3 4:44 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:28 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% NE NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ DL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Harvey Langi (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 14
Luck in points
4.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 43% · Patriots 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Jets · Patriots

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