luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Eagles, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Eagles 20–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.7 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff Washington were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:01 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 20
Philadelphia Eagles 14

January 3, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Washington −6.5

Luck index +37 Washington lucky · −37 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 28 PHI 3
  2. 2 WAS 34 PHI 17
  3. 3 WAS 29 PHI 17
  4. 4 WAS 34 PHI 27
  5. 5 WAS 25 PHI 20
  6. 6 WAS 30 PHI 28
  7. 7 WAS 25 PHI 27
  8. 8 WAS 13 PHI 19
  9. 9 WAS 12 PHI 23
  10. 10 WAS 23 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 63% of them, Eagles 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+14.6%
Washington by 9–1617.9%
Washington by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation3.3%
Eagles by 1–819.1%
Eagles by 9–1611.8%
Eagles by 17+5.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:15 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:20 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% PHI WAS: Punt
4 Q3 2:01 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +15% WAS PHI: Turnover
5 Q4 12:53 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% PHI WAS: Punt
6 Q4 9:42 The Eagles fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% WAS PHI: Punt
7 Q4 4:38 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q4 3:38 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Mills (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kevon Seymour (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Duke Riley (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 83% · Eagles 17%

Final margin
Washington by 6
Luck in points
5.5 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Washington 63% · Eagles 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Washington · Eagles

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