luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 44–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:36 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 12, worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44

January 3, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +2 Buccaneers about even · −2 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 ATL 13 TB 16
  2. 2 ATL 20 TB 27
  3. 3 ATL 17 TB 28
  4. 4 ATL 7 TB 21
  5. 5 ATL 13 TB 30
  6. 6 ATL 10 TB 30
  7. 7 ATL 10 TB 34
  8. 8 ATL 6 TB 32
  9. 9 ATL 7 TB 37
  10. 10 ATL 0 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 2% of them, Buccaneers 98%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.1%
Falcons by 9–160.5%
Falcons by 1–81.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Buccaneers by 1–86.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1617.1%
Buccaneers by 17+73.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 16.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Succop, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:38 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:56 The Falcons converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1313 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q3 3:15 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q3 2:25 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 8:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:36 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:58 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devin White (TB ILB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB OLB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • A.Q. Shipley (TB C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Alex Mack (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL DB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 17
Luck in points
0.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 2% · Buccaneers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

More from Week 17 2020