luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Broncos, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 32–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8.9 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): B. McManus had a 63-yard field goal blocked, worth 53 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 32
Denver Broncos 31

January 3, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +32 Raiders lucky · −32 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Broncos win 3.

  1. 1 LV 47 DEN 16
  2. 2 LV 46 DEN 24
  3. 3 LV 38 DEN 22
  4. 4 LV 44 DEN 33
  5. 5 LV 27 DEN 20
  6. 6 LV 31 DEN 27
  7. 7 LV 36 DEN 34
  8. 8 LV 37 DEN 40
  9. 9 LV 24 DEN 33
  10. 10 LV 27 DEN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 68% of them, Broncos 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+26.5%
Raiders by 9–1617.1%
Raiders by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation3.8%
Broncos by 1–814.3%
Broncos by 9–168.6%
Broncos by 17+6.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 4.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • B. McManus, 70 yds blocked · 47% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 63 yds blocked · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:32 The Raiders converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:03 B. McManus had a 70-yard field goal blockedKicks · 47% expected for him, 22 of 29 from 45+ before +19% LV DEN: Field goal
3 Q3 6:08 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% DEN LV: Turnover
4 Q3 2:32 The Raiders fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DEN LV: Turnover
5 Q4 6:43 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +39% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:27 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +22% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:24 The Raiders’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Raiders (Daryl Worley), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1399 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +19% LV LV: End of game
8 Q4 0:09 B. McManus had a 63-yard field goal blockedKicks · 52% expected for him, 22 of 30 from 45+ before +53% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Bouye (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN OLB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Demar Dotson (DEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Essang Bassey (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Erik Harris (LV S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Kwiatkoski (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 82% · Broncos 18%

Final margin
Raiders by 1
Luck in points
3.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 68% · Broncos 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Raiders · Broncos

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