luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Lions at Giants, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Giants 31–18, but the Giants played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:54 left): the Giants converted 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
New York Giants 18

November 20, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +64 Lions very lucky · −64 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Giants win 6.

  1. 1 DET 32 NYG 13
  2. 2 DET 37 NYG 27
  3. 3 DET 16 NYG 10
  4. 4 DET 16 NYG 13
  5. 5 DET 17 NYG 19
  6. 6 DET 23 NYG 27
  7. 7 DET 10 NYG 19
  8. 8 DET 16 NYG 28
  9. 9 DET 20 NYG 37
  10. 10 DET 10 NYG 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 36% of them, Giants 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+5.8%
Lions by 9–169.8%
Lions by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Giants by 1–825.9%
Giants by 9–1618.8%
Giants by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 2.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 24 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Oshane Ximines), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1471 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +9% DET DET: Field goal
2 Q1 5:54 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:21 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:19 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% DET DET: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 12:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DET DET: Punt
7 Q2 8:26 The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET DET: Punt
8 Q2 6:19 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DET NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Paschal (DET DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 71% · Giants 29%

Final margin
Lions by 13
Luck in points
10.9 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 36% · Giants 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Lions · Giants

More from Week 11 2022