luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Lions at Giants, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Giants 31–18, but the replays lean toward the Giants: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:37 left): Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Oshane Ximines), 15 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
New York Giants 18

November 20, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +63 Lions very lucky · −63 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Giants win 6.

  1. 1 DET 30 NYG 10
  2. 2 DET 25 NYG 14
  3. 3 DET 27 NYG 21
  4. 4 DET 16 NYG 13
  5. 5 DET 24 NYG 27
  6. 6 DET 17 NYG 23
  7. 7 DET 20 NYG 30
  8. 8 DET 20 NYG 35
  9. 9 DET 16 NYG 35
  10. 10 DET 6 NYG 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 37% of them, Giants 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+5.8%
Lions by 9–169.6%
Lions by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation2.5%
Giants by 1–826.8%
Giants by 9–1619.1%
Giants by 17+17.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 13, without the luck Lions by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 24 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 5 for 45 yards, Giants 8 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:37 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Oshane Ximines), 15 yards +9% DET +2.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +2.6 pts
Q2 14:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions, 15 yards +1% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 12:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DET +2.4 pts
Q2 9:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +1.6 pts
Q2 5:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 2 yards +1% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 4:38 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants, 6 yards +2% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 1:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 0:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Cam Brown), 15 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 0:06 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q4 8:52 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 8:31 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 5:46 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards 0% NYG +0.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Oshane Ximines), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1471 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +9% DET DET: Field goal
2 Q1 5:54 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:21 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:19 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% DET DET: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 12:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DET DET: Punt
7 Q2 9:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DET DET: Punt
8 Q2 6:19 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% DET NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Paschal (DET DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 81% · Giants 19%

Final margin
Lions by 13
Luck in points
9.7 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Lions 37% · Giants 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Lions · Giants

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