luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Chiefs at Chargers, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:53 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 18, worth 21 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 30
Los Angeles Chargers 27

November 20, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +4 Chiefs about even · −4 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Chargers win 0.

  1. 1 KC 48 LAC 9
  2. 2 KC 48 LAC 17
  3. 3 KC 45 LAC 20
  4. 4 KC 48 LAC 27
  5. 5 KC 41 LAC 23
  6. 6 KC 49 LAC 33
  7. 7 KC 26 LAC 14
  8. 8 KC 30 LAC 20
  9. 9 KC 23 LAC 17
  10. 10 KC 37 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 96% of them, Chargers 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+67.1%
Chiefs by 9–1619.7%
Chiefs by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Chargers by 1–82.7%
Chargers by 9–160.9%
Chargers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 4 for 54 yards, Chargers 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:35 Illegal Crackback on the Chiefs (Kadarius Toney), 14 yards +3% LAC +1.3 pts
Q1 0:09 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +6% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 3:35 Face Mask on the Chiefs (Nick Bolton), 15 yards +5% LAC +1.4 pts
Q2 1:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Nick Bolton), 15 yards +6% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 12:17 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q3 9:08 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 1:12 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards +8% KC +0.9 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:57 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q3 1:55 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:18 The Chargers fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% KC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:57 The Chiefs fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% LAC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +21% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:12 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1847 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +8% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:26 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +10% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LAC TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 88% · Chargers 12%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 96% · Chargers 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Chiefs · Chargers

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