luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Chiefs at Chargers, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:53 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 18, worth 31 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 30
Los Angeles Chargers 27

November 20, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +12 Chiefs about even · −12 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 KC 55 LAC 20
  2. 2 KC 35 LAC 10
  3. 3 KC 47 LAC 26
  4. 4 KC 41 LAC 23
  5. 5 KC 35 LAC 21
  6. 6 KC 37 LAC 26
  7. 7 KC 34 LAC 27
  8. 8 KC 34 LAC 30
  9. 9 KC 29 LAC 26
  10. 10 KC 31 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 88% of them, Chargers 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+45.3%
Chiefs by 9–1623.1%
Chiefs by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Chargers by 1–87.9%
Chargers by 9–162.4%
Chargers by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:22 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q3 3:57 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:55 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +18% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:18 The Chargers fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% KC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:57 The Chiefs fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% LAC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +31% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:26 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LAC TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 96% · Chargers 4%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
7.0 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 88% · Chargers 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Chiefs · Chargers

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