luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Jaguars at Chiefs, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:04 left): the Chiefs fumbled and the Jaguars recovered, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Kansas City Chiefs 27

November 13, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +15 Chiefs about even · −15 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 26 KC 20
  2. 2 JAX 34 KC 36
  3. 3 JAX 26 KC 31
  4. 4 JAX 26 KC 35
  5. 5 JAX 20 KC 31
  6. 6 JAX 24 KC 38
  7. 7 JAX 21 KC 38
  8. 8 JAX 17 KC 37
  9. 9 JAX 17 KC 41
  10. 10 JAX 20 KC 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 15% of them, Chiefs 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.8%
Jaguars by 9–163.1%
Jaguars by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation2.2%
Chiefs by 1–820.6%
Chiefs by 9–1622.1%
Chiefs by 17+42.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 10, without the luck Chiefs by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds missed · 84% expected
  • R. Patterson, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 30 yards, Chiefs 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +1.3 pts
Q2 9:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Dan Arnold), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 2:07 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards 0% KC +0.8 pts
Q3 6:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +2.4 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% KC KC: Turnover
2 Q1 9:46 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% KC KC: Turnover
3 Q1 9:04 The Chiefs fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:44 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
5 Q2 13:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:25 J. Hasty dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 7 catchable balls before this +7% KC JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:03 R. Patterson missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +6% KC JAX: Field goal
8 Q3 6:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (KC DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 34% · Chiefs 66%

Final margin
Chiefs by 10
Luck in points
6.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 15% · Chiefs 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Jaguars · Chiefs

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