luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Jaguars at Chiefs, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.3 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:44 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Kansas City Chiefs 27

November 13, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +6 Chiefs about even · −6 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 26 KC 21
  2. 2 JAX 26 KC 29
  3. 3 JAX 17 KC 23
  4. 4 JAX 27 KC 35
  5. 5 JAX 10 KC 23
  6. 6 JAX 13 KC 30
  7. 7 JAX 13 KC 33
  8. 8 JAX 15 KC 38
  9. 9 JAX 14 KC 41
  10. 10 JAX 10 KC 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 6% of them, Chiefs 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.2%
Jaguars by 9–161.1%
Jaguars by 1–84.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Chiefs by 1–810.9%
Chiefs by 9–1623.4%
Chiefs by 17+59.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds missed · 83% expected
  • R. Patterson, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% KC KC: Turnover
2 Q1 9:46 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% KC KC: Turnover
3 Q1 9:04 The Chiefs fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX KC: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:59 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% KC JAX: Punt
5 Q2 13:44 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
6 Q2 11:25 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedJ. Hasty dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 7 catchable balls before this +8% KC JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:03 R. Patterson missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +6% KC JAX: Field goal
8 Q3 6:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (KC DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 47% · Chiefs 53%

Final margin
Chiefs by 10
Luck in points
8.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 6% · Chiefs 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Jaguars · Chiefs

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