luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Seahawks vs Buccaneers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks 21–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Buccaneers win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

November 13, 2022 · Allianz Arena · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +59 Buccaneers lucky · −59 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Buccaneers win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 30 TB 6
  2. 2 SEA 34 TB 17
  3. 3 SEA 33 TB 21
  4. 4 SEA 17 TB 9
  5. 5 SEA 29 TB 24
  6. 6 SEA 19 TB 17
  7. 7 SEA 24 TB 27
  8. 8 SEA 17 TB 24
  9. 9 SEA 13 TB 26
  10. 10 SEA 17 TB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 59% of them, Buccaneers 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+13.7%
Seahawks by 9–1616.5%
Seahawks by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation3.2%
Buccaneers by 1–819.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1612.2%
Buccaneers by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 5, without the luck Buccaneers by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 52 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Myers, 55 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 46 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +1.1 pts
Q1 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 13 yards +4% TB +1.2 pts
Q1 5:36 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 9:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Michael Jackson), 3 yards +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 3:03 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q3 12:14 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +2% TB +1.1 pts
Q3 6:39 Tripping on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 10 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Akiem Hicks), 15 yards +4% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 10:14 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Akiem Hicks), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.2 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:21 C. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 49 catchable balls before this +4% SEA TB: Punt
2 Q1 9:02 C. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 50 catchable balls before this +7% SEA TB: Missed field goal
3 Q1 8:58 R. Succop missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 17 of 25 from 45+ before +4% SEA TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:27 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:14 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3349 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +4% TB SEA: Field goal
7 Q3 6:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Akiem Hicks), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1452 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +4% SEA SEA: Turnover
8 Q3 2:36 The Seahawks fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 28% · Buccaneers 72%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 5
Luck in points
1.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 59% · Buccaneers 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Seahawks · Buccaneers

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