luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Browns at Dolphins, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Browns 39–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:39 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Cleveland Browns 17
Miami Dolphins 39

November 13, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +5 Dolphins about even · −5 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 27 MIA 30
  2. 2 CLE 23 MIA 27
  3. 3 CLE 24 MIA 31
  4. 4 CLE 17 MIA 27
  5. 5 CLE 14 MIA 26
  6. 6 CLE 19 MIA 34
  7. 7 CLE 27 MIA 45
  8. 8 CLE 13 MIA 34
  9. 9 CLE 10 MIA 36
  10. 10 CLE 3 MIA 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 5% of them, Dolphins 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.2%
Browns by 9–161.1%
Browns by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.6%
Dolphins by 1–813.9%
Dolphins by 9–1621.0%
Dolphins by 17+60.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 21.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. York, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% CLE CLE: Turnover
2 Q1 1:05 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
3 Q1 0:20 The Browns fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIA CLE: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 14:56 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 8:24 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:39 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% MIA CLE: Punt
7 Q2 2:13 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% CLE MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:36 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% MIA CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 22
Luck in points
0.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 5% · Dolphins 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Browns · Dolphins

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