luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2020 · November 2, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Giants, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Giants 25–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Buccaneers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): the Giants’ two-point try failed, worth 17 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25
New York Giants 23

November 2, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −13

Luck index +47 Buccaneers lucky · −47 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 TB 34 NYG 13
  2. 2 TB 35 NYG 21
  3. 3 TB 27 NYG 19
  4. 4 TB 24 NYG 19
  5. 5 TB 23 NYG 21
  6. 6 TB 19 NYG 21
  7. 7 TB 16 NYG 22
  8. 8 TB 14 NYG 23
  9. 9 TB 19 NYG 35
  10. 10 TB 13 NYG 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 53% of them, Giants 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+11.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.2%
Buccaneers by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation5.6%
Giants by 1–821.1%
Giants by 9–1614.3%
Giants by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Giants by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Succop, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Succop, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 3 for 20 yards, Giants 7 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TB +2.8 pts
Q1 4:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.3 pts
Q3 6:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 14 yards +5% TB +1.3 pts
Q3 5:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Levine Toilolo), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% TB +2.3 pts
Q3 1:58 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +7% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 9:42 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Giants (Isaac Yiadom), 9 yards +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 4:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 15 yards +5% TB +2.0 pts
Q4 2:07 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TB TB: Turnover
2 Q1 7:53 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 5:02 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG TB: Punt
4 Q1 4:15 The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:05 R. Succop made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +8% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Levine Toilolo), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 461 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +9% TB TB: Punt
7 Q4 10:45 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:28 The Giants’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +17% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Hernandez (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tae Crowder (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • O.J. Howard (TB TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 39% · Giants 61%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
3.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 53% · Giants 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Buccaneers · Giants

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