luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Chiefs, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Jets 35–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.8 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 93% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:09 left): the Chiefs converted 4th & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

New York Jets 9
Kansas City Chiefs 35

November 1, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −20

Luck index +2 Chiefs about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 7 KC 10
  2. 2 NYJ 13 KC 21
  3. 3 NYJ 13 KC 24
  4. 4 NYJ 6 KC 20
  5. 5 NYJ 13 KC 30
  6. 6 NYJ 6 KC 26
  7. 7 NYJ 7 KC 30
  8. 8 NYJ 3 KC 29
  9. 9 NYJ 7 KC 38
  10. 10 NYJ 3 KC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 2% of them, Chiefs 98%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.3%
Jets by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Chiefs by 1–85.3%
Chiefs by 9–1612.6%
Chiefs by 17+80.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 24.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • S. Castillo, 55 yds made · 60% expected
  • S. Castillo, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • S. Castillo, 47 yds blocked · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:19 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 2:09 The Chiefs converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:08 S. Castillo made 55-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 10:39 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +5% NYJ KC: Punt
5 Q2 6:26 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q2 3:00 S. Castillo made 48-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +8% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
7 Q2 2:48 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 748 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +5% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:19 The Jets converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mitchell Schwartz (KC T), out · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (KC G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Conor McDermott (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 26
Luck in points
1.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 24.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 2% · Chiefs 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Jets · Chiefs

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