luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · October 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Panthers, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 25–17, but the Panthers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.6 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:01 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 25
Carolina Panthers 17

October 29, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1.5

Luck index +63 Falcons very lucky · −63 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 31 CAR 13
  2. 2 ATL 28 CAR 17
  3. 3 ATL 34 CAR 28
  4. 4 ATL 29 CAR 27
  5. 5 ATL 17 CAR 19
  6. 6 ATL 38 CAR 43
  7. 7 ATL 13 CAR 20
  8. 8 ATL 6 CAR 17
  9. 9 ATL 2 CAR 17
  10. 10 ATL 14 CAR 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 37% of them, Panthers 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+5.0%
Falcons by 9–1610.7%
Falcons by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation3.3%
Panthers by 1–830.7%
Panthers by 9–1616.4%
Panthers by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:44 The Falcons converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q2 4:01 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% ATL CAR: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 11:36 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% ATL CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 5:33 The Panthers converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q3 4:26 Disqualification on the Falcons (Charles Harris), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 625 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q3 1:41 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:47 The Panthers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 1:04 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (CAR DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 94% · Panthers 6%

Final margin
Falcons by 8
Luck in points
2.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 37% · Panthers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Falcons · Panthers

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