luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Ravens, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 28–24, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.0 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Ravens were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 52 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Baltimore Ravens 24

November 1, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +63 Steelers very lucky · −63 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Ravens win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 45 BAL 27
  2. 2 PIT 34 BAL 24
  3. 3 PIT 35 BAL 30
  4. 4 PIT 23 BAL 21
  5. 5 PIT 26 BAL 28
  6. 6 PIT 12 BAL 17
  7. 7 PIT 13 BAL 22
  8. 8 PIT 12 BAL 24
  9. 9 PIT 23 BAL 38
  10. 10 PIT 14 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 37% of them, Ravens 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+5.8%
Steelers by 9–1610.5%
Steelers by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Ravens by 1–826.6%
Ravens by 9–1619.7%
Ravens by 17+16.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +40% PIT BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:48 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +22% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:00 Face Mask on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:27 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% PIT BAL: Turnover
7 Q4 2:00 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +52% PIT BAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:26 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +21% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jihad Ward (BAL DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 35% · Ravens 65%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
5.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 37% · Ravens 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Steelers · Ravens

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