luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Ravens, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 28–24, but the replays lean toward the Ravens: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:35 left): Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Baltimore Ravens 24

November 1, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +65 Steelers very lucky · −65 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Ravens win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 26 BAL 7
  2. 2 PIT 23 BAL 13
  3. 3 PIT 40 BAL 34
  4. 4 PIT 25 BAL 23
  5. 5 PIT 34 BAL 36
  6. 6 PIT 27 BAL 33
  7. 7 PIT 19 BAL 27
  8. 8 PIT 10 BAL 23
  9. 9 PIT 13 BAL 30
  10. 10 PIT 14 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 35% of them, Ravens 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+5.5%
Steelers by 9–1610.2%
Steelers by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.2%
Ravens by 1–826.8%
Ravens by 9–1618.8%
Ravens by 17+17.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 4, without the luck Steelers by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Steelers 3 for 30 yards, Ravens 9 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.8 pts
Q1 11:04 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 8:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 8:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yards +7% PIT +2.6 pts
Q2 5:59 Disqualification on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 4:42 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:09 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% PIT +1.0 pts
Q3 13:21 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q3 10:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 20 yards +6% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +25% PIT +3.9 pts
Q4 11:00 Face Mask on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +9% PIT +1.6 pts
Q4 8:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 20 yards +7% PIT +1.1 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +19% PIT PIT: Opp touchdown
2 Q4 15:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:00 Face Mask on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:27 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% PIT BAL: Turnover
6 Q4 2:00 The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% PIT BAL: End of game
7 Q4 0:29 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% PIT BAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:26 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +21% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jihad Ward (BAL DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 54% · Ravens 46%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
1.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 35% · Ravens 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Steelers · Ravens

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