luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Broncos, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos stole one. They beat the Chargers 31–30, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 1.8 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yards, worth 22 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Denver Broncos 31

November 1, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +82 Broncos very lucky · −82 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Broncos win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 44 DEN 17
  2. 2 LAC 34 DEN 13
  3. 3 LAC 44 DEN 26
  4. 4 LAC 34 DEN 20
  5. 5 LAC 37 DEN 27
  6. 6 LAC 33 DEN 26
  7. 7 LAC 32 DEN 27
  8. 8 LAC 22 DEN 20
  9. 9 LAC 38 DEN 41
  10. 10 LAC 27 DEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 82% of them, Broncos 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+35.4%
Chargers by 9–1621.2%
Chargers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation1.6%
Broncos by 1–810.9%
Broncos by 9–164.7%
Broncos by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 52 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Badgley, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% DEN LAC: Punt
2 Q1 1:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 15:00 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% DEN LAC: Punt
4 Q2 1:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:31 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:13 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% LAC DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yardsJudgment calls +22% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Desmond King (LAC DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 46% · Broncos 54%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
2.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 82% · Broncos 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Chargers · Broncos

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