Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chargers at Broncos, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Chargers 31–30, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Broncos very lucky · −83 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Broncos win 2.
- 1 LAC 51 DEN 19
- 2 LAC 37 DEN 14
- 3 LAC 35 DEN 17
- 4 LAC 31 DEN 17
- 5 LAC 34 DEN 23
- 6 LAC 41 DEN 34
- 7 LAC 17 DEN 13
- 8 LAC 24 DEN 22
- 9 LAC 23 DEN 26
- 10 LAC 24 DEN 37
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 83% of them, Broncos 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 39.1% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Badgley, 52 yds made · 61% expected
- M. Badgley, 47 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Badgley, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Chargers 6 for 67 yards, Broncos 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:29 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:36 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +5% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 6:54 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards | +2% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Josey Jewell), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:13 | Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards | +1% LAC +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (DaeSean Hamilton), 10 yards | +2% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:10 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LAC +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:44 | Face Mask on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards | +2% LAC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 7:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Nasir Adderley), 15 yards | +3% DEN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 3:35 | Illegal Crackback on the Chargers (Hunter Henry), 15 yards | +4% DEN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 5 yards | +5% DEN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yards | +19% DEN +1.2 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:51 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% LAC | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +12% DEN | LAC: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:43 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:53 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +5% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:31 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:13 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% LAC | DEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yardsJudgment calls | +19% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Desmond King (LAC DB), out · 0.3 pts
- Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 33% · Broncos 67%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 4.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 83% · Broncos 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · 
Chargers · 
Broncos
More from Week 8 2020
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 25–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Colts at Lions IND 41–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at Dolphins MIA 28–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 28–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills BUF 24–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jets at Chiefs KC 35–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 28–24 · replay 35% for the winner
- Titans at Bengals CIN 31–20 · replay 8% for the winner
- Saints at Bears NO 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SEA 37–27 · replay 57% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 23–9 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 25–23 · replay 53% for the winner