Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Packers, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Packers 28–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:46 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 28 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Vikings lucky · −26 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Packers win 3.
- 1 MIN 27 GB 3
- 2 MIN 47 GB 31
- 3 MIN 33 GB 20
- 4 MIN 27 GB 17
- 5 MIN 16 GB 9
- 6 MIN 31 GB 27
- 7 MIN 27 GB 24
- 8 MIN 17 GB 20
- 9 MIN 17 GB 24
- 10 MIN 17 GB 31
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.57 | +0.13 | better by 0.44 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.09 | worse by 0.10 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.18 | better by 0.01 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.57 | +0.09 | worse by 0.48 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 74% of them, Packers 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 19.5% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 23.6% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 28.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Packers by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Vikings 7 for 36 yards, Packers 9 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:49 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Robert Tonyan), 10 yards | +3% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:57 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | Encroachment on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:04 | Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards | +3% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 20 yards | +8% MIN +2.4 pts |
| Q3 11:49 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yards | +6% MIN +2.1 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MIN +2.0 pts |
| Q3 2:20 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:54 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards | +2% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q4 3:53 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% GB +3.0 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +1% MIN +1.3 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:09 | The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:33 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 2:00 | The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 13:46 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 12:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 587 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:07 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% MIN | GB: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:12 | The Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
- Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 43% · Packers 57%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 74% · Packers 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · 
Vikings · 
Packers
More from Week 8 2020
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 25–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Colts at Lions IND 41–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at Dolphins MIA 28–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills BUF 24–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jets at Chiefs KC 35–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 28–24 · replay 35% for the winner
- Titans at Bengals CIN 31–20 · replay 8% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 31–30 · replay 17% for the winner
- Saints at Bears NO 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SEA 37–27 · replay 57% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 23–9 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 25–23 · replay 53% for the winner