Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022
Vikings at Dolphins, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Dolphins 24–16, but the replays lean toward the Dolphins: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Vikings.
The Vikings won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:08 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 24 |
|---|---|
 Miami Dolphins | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Vikings very lucky · −77 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Dolphins win 8.
- 1 MIN 48 MIA 34
- 2 MIN 27 MIA 23
- 3 MIN 44 MIA 46
- 4 MIN 47 MIA 52
- 5 MIN 26 MIA 34
- 6 MIN 24 MIA 36
- 7 MIN 15 MIA 31
- 8 MIN 13 MIA 33
- 9 MIN 23 MIA 47
- 10 MIN 8 MIA 41
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Vikings won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.12 | worse by 0.21 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.11 | better by 0.22 |
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.10 | worse by 0.21 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.10 | better by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 23% of them, Dolphins 77%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 4.1% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Dolphins by 17+ | 34.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- J. Sanders, 52 yds missed · 65% expected
- G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Vikings 2 for 20 yards, Dolphins 10 for 97 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:45 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:24 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MIN +2.3 pts |
| Q1 2:57 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% MIN +3.5 pts |
| Q1 1:37 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards | +3% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 1 yard | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:32 | Face Mask on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 15 yards | +4% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Noah Igbinoghene), 21 yards | +3% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 12:00 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Teddy Bridgewater), 20 yards | +4% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:28 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +8% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:05 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards | 0% MIN +0.9 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Dolphins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:57 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:04 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedOffensive Holding on the Dolphins (Trent Sherfield), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1531 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 | +8% MIN | MIA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 2:17 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% MIA | MIA: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:39 | K. Osborn dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this | +9% MIA | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:23 | The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +9% MIN | MIA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 6:08 | The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +15% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 5:28 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:22 | The Dolphins fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIN | MIA: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kader Kohou (MIA DB), out · 0.3 pts
- Durham Smythe (MIA TE), out · 0.2 pts
- D.J. Wonnum (MIN DE), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 46% · Dolphins 54%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 8
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Dolphins by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 23% · Dolphins 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · 
Vikings · 
Dolphins
More from Week 6 2022
- Commanders at Bears WAS 12–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants NYG 24–20 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bengals at Saints CIN 30–26 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 34–27 · replay 14% for the winner
- Patriots at Browns NE 38–15 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jets at Packers NYJ 27–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- 49ers at Falcons ATL 28–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Steelers PIT 20–18 · replay 13% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 19–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Panthers at Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 24–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 26–17 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 32% for the winner