luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Vikings at Dolphins, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Dolphins 24–16, but the Dolphins played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 12.8 points to the Vikings.

The Vikings won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:08 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 24
Miami Dolphins 16

October 16, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +73 Vikings very lucky · −73 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 36 MIA 17
  2. 2 MIN 18 MIA 7
  3. 3 MIN 33 MIA 30
  4. 4 MIN 31 MIA 33
  5. 5 MIN 31 MIA 37
  6. 6 MIN 22 MIA 31
  7. 7 MIN 10 MIA 23
  8. 8 MIN 30 MIA 48
  9. 9 MIN 24 MIA 47
  10. 10 MIN 26 MIA 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Vikings won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.

32 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.12 worse by 0.21
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.11 better by 0.22
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.10 worse by 0.21
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.10 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 27% of them, Dolphins 73%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+4.5%
Vikings by 9–169.0%
Vikings by 1–812.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Dolphins by 1–821.1%
Dolphins by 9–1618.7%
Dolphins by 17+32.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 8.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds missed · 65% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q1 1:04 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedOffensive Holding on the Dolphins (Trent Sherfield), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1531 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +8% MIN MIA: Punt
3 Q2 2:17 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:39 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedK. Osborn dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +12% MIA MIN: Punt
5 Q2 0:23 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% MIN MIA: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 3:46 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Teddy Bridgewater), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2215 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +10% MIN MIA: Punt
7 Q4 6:08 The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +15% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 5:28 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Durham Smythe (MIA TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Wonnum (MIN DE), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 23% · Dolphins 77%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
16.4 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 27% · Dolphins 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Vikings · Dolphins

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