luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Panthers at Rams, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Panthers 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:08 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 33 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Los Angeles Rams 24

October 16, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −10

Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 22 LA 17
  2. 2 CAR 17 LA 19
  3. 3 CAR 21 LA 28
  4. 4 CAR 17 LA 27
  5. 5 CAR 7 LA 20
  6. 6 CAR 13 LA 27
  7. 7 CAR 7 LA 24
  8. 8 CAR 6 LA 26
  9. 9 CAR 10 LA 34
  10. 10 CAR 3 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 9% of them, Rams 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.3%
Panthers by 9–161.8%
Panthers by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.4%
Rams by 1–818.8%
Rams by 9–1621.3%
Rams by 17+50.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Gay, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q2 9:05 The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:49 The Rams converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:08 The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +33% CAR LA: Punt
5 Q2 1:58 The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LA LA: Punt
6 Q3 8:33 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q3 7:35 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q3 4:43 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% CAR LA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Troy Hill (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baker Mayfield (CAR QB), out, replaced by p.walker · 4.6 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Frankie Luvu (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 2% · Rams 98%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
10.2 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 9% · Rams 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Panthers · Rams

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