Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Texans?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.11 points a game to the Texans since 2019, 19th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.52 points a game over 8 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Texans minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Texans
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 10 · 37 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 3 · 36 pts of win probability
- Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 1 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 16 · 20 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 2 · 19 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 17 · 26 pts of win probability
- Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards · 2022 Week 16 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Texans (John Metchie), 10 yards · 2023 Week 15 · 21 pts of win probability
- Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 11 · 21 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 16 · 18 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Texans?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.11 points a game to the Texans since 2019, 19th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.52 points a game over 8 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Houston Texans, every season