2026 season · in progress
Houston Texans, 2026: game by game
The Texans went 3–5 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–4.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bills | L 31–36 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 2 | vs Bengals | L 6–20 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 3 | @ Colts | L 17–19 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 4 | vs Cowboys | L 30–34 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 5 | @ Titans | W 26–3 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 34–31 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 7 | vs Giants | L 21–27 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 9 | @ Chargers | W 44–22 | 94% | +6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Texans win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | at Browns |  Texans by 1.7 | 55% |
| Week 11 · Nov 19 | vs Colts | Texans by 7.2 | 71% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | vs Ravens | Texans by 1.6 | 55% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Steelers |  Steelers by 3.6 | 39% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | at Commanders | Texans by 1.1 | 53% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | vs Jaguars |  Jaguars by 3.2 | 40% |
| Week 16 · Dec 24 | at Eagles | Texans by 2.1 | 56% |
| Week 17 · Jan 4 | at Packers |  Packers by 5.1 | 35% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | vs Titans | Texans by 10.2 | 78% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.08 | +9.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.05 | −2.5 |
| Injuries | +0.05 | +2.6 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.06 | 0.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | +6.4 |