luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Houston Texans, 2026: game by game

The Texans went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bills L 31–36 7% −7
Week 2 vs Bengals L 6–20 56% −56

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Texans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+4.2+2.08
Judgment calls+0.1+0.05
Injuries−1.9−0.93
3rd & 4th downs−2.0−1.01
Kicks−4.3−2.17
Fumble bounces−4.7−2.36