luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Clay Martin: flags and calls

Clay Martin’s crews have worked 117 games since 2019: 7.3 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.6 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth +0.5% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019157.15.1−2.9%
2020137.24.3−9.3%
2021177.44.2+4.3%
2022177.64.1+7.6%
2023176.64.2−3.0%
2024177.55.2+4.0%
2025177.54.6−0.4%
202647.55.8+3.1%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play · BAL at NYG, 2022 Week 6 · 61 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play · LAC at CIN, 2020 Week 1 · 58 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · NO at TB, 2022 Week 13 · 57 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · HOU at LAC, 2019 Week 3 · 36 pts of win probability
  5. Leverage on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 15 yards · NO at TB, 2022 Week 13 · 34 pts of win probability
  6. Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Danny Shelton), 15 yards · MIA at NE, 2019 Week 17 · 29 pts of win probability
  7. Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · BAL at PIT, 2024 Week 11 · 25 pts of win probability
  8. Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · LA at SEA, 2024 Week 9 · 24 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Lions at Panthers CAR 32–26 67% +33
2026 Week 3 Bengals at Steelers PIT 30–27 65% +35
2026 Week 2 Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 62% +38
2026 Week 1 Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 86% +14
2025 NFC Championship Rams at Seahawks SEA 31–27 35% +65
2025 Week 18 Dolphins at Patriots NE 38–10 100% 0
2025 Week 17 Cardinals at Bengals CIN 37–14 97% +3
2025 Week 16 Jets at Saints NO 29–6 95% +5
2025 Week 15 Raiders at Eagles PHI 31–0 100% 0
2025 Week 13 Texans at Colts HOU 20–16 22% +78
2025 Week 12 Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–7 98% +2
2025 Week 11 Panthers at Falcons CAR 30–27 78% +22
2025 Week 10 Eagles at Packers PHI 10–7 48% +52
2025 Week 9 Vikings at Lions MIN 27–24 60% +40
2025 Week 7 Steelers at Bengals CIN 33–31 59% +41
2025 Week 6 Seahawks at Jaguars SEA 20–12 94% +6
2025 Week 5 Dolphins at Panthers CAR 27–24 62% +38
2025 Week 4 Ravens at Chiefs KC 37–20 50% +50
2025 Week 3 Cowboys at Bears CHI 31–14 50% +50
2025 Week 2 Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 76% +24
2025 Week 1 Giants at Commanders WAS 21–6 97% +3
2024 Divisional round Texans at Chiefs KC 23–14 46% +54
2024 Week 18 Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 1% +99
2024 Week 17 Panthers at Buccaneers TB 48–14 100% 0
2024 Week 16 Broncos at Chargers LAC 34–27 77% +23
2024 Week 15 Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 62% +38
2024 Week 14 Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 30–18 77% +24
2024 Week 13 Raiders at Chiefs KC 19–17 52% +48
2024 Week 12 Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 89% +11
2024 Week 11 Ravens at Steelers PIT 18–16 10% +90
2024 Week 9 Rams at Seahawks LA 26–20 36% +64
2024 Week 8 Cardinals at Dolphins ARI 28–27 93% +7
2024 Week 7 Lions at Vikings DET 31–29 48% +52
2024 Week 6 Falcons at Panthers ATL 38–20 97% +3
2024 Week 5 Bills at Texans HOU 23–20 82% +18
2024 Week 4 Cowboys at Giants DAL 20–15 97% +3
2024 Week 3 Packers at Titans GB 30–14 93% +7
2024 Week 2 Buccaneers at Lions TB 20–16 16% +84
2023 Wild Card Browns at Texans HOU 45–14 92% +8
2023 Week 18 Rams at 49ers LA 21–20 44% +56
2023 Week 17 Packers at Vikings GB 33–10 98% +2
2023 Week 16 Commanders at Jets NYJ 30–28 9% +91
2023 Week 15 Eagles at Seahawks SEA 20–17 31% +69
2023 Week 14 Patriots at Steelers NE 21–18 46% +54
2023 Week 13 Lions at Saints DET 33–28 82% +18
2023 Week 12 Jaguars at Texans JAX 24–21 43% +57
2023 Week 11 Cowboys at Panthers DAL 33–10 98% +2
2023 Week 9 Dolphins vs Chiefs KC 21–14 70% +30
2023 Week 8 Falcons at Titans TEN 28–23 31% +69
2023 Week 7 Raiders at Bears CHI 30–12 87% +13
2023 Week 6 Lions at Buccaneers DET 20–6 60% +40
2023 Week 5 Bengals at Cardinals CIN 34–20 64% +36
2023 Week 3 Broncos at Dolphins MIA 70–20 99% +1
2023 Week 2 Vikings at Eagles PHI 34–28 63% +37
2023 Week 1 Jaguars at Colts JAX 31–21 96% +4
2022 Wild Card Ravens at Bengals CIN 24–17 57% +43
2022 Week 18 Patriots at Bills BUF 35–23 89% +11
2022 Week 17 49ers at Raiders SF 37–34 52% +48
2022 Week 16 Chargers at Colts LAC 20–3 91% +9
2022 Week 14 Jaguars at Titans JAX 36–22 92% +8
2022 Week 13 Saints at Buccaneers TB 17–16 14% +86
2022 Week 12 Broncos at Panthers CAR 23–10 64% +36
2022 Week 11 Cowboys at Vikings DAL 40–3 93% +7
2022 Week 9 Colts at Patriots NE 26–3 69% +31
2022 Week 8 Titans at Texans TEN 17–10 98% +2
2022 Week 7 Packers at Commanders WAS 23–21 8% +92
2022 Week 6 Ravens at Giants NYG 24–20 31% +69
2022 Week 5 Dolphins at Jets NYJ 40–17 89% +11
2022 Week 4 Seahawks at Lions SEA 48–45 92% +8
2022 Week 3 Steelers at Browns CLE 29–17 82% +18
2022 Week 2 Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 82% +18
2022 Week 1 49ers at Bears CHI 19–10 43% +57
2021 Wild Card Cardinals at Rams LA 34–11 95% +5
2021 Week 18 Colts at Jaguars JAX 26–11 80% +20
2021 Week 17 Vikings at Packers GB 37–10 98% +2
2021 Week 16 Chargers at Texans HOU 41–29 23% +77
2021 Week 15 Falcons at 49ers SF 31–13 91% +9
2021 Week 13 Eagles at Jets PHI 33–18 67% +33
2021 Week 12 Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 90% +10
2021 Week 11 Lions at Browns CLE 13–10 74% +26
2021 Week 10 Vikings at Chargers MIN 27–20 23% +77
2021 Week 9 Raiders at Giants NYG 23–16 14% +86
2021 Week 8 Rams at Texans LA 38–22 99% +1
2021 Week 6 Buccaneers at Eagles TB 28–22 84% +16
2021 Week 5 49ers at Cardinals ARI 17–10 27% +73
2021 Week 4 Washington at Falcons WAS 34–30 70% +30
2021 Week 3 Seahawks at Vikings MIN 30–17 40% +60
2021 Week 2 Broncos at Jaguars DEN 23–13 88% +12
2021 Week 1 Jets at Panthers CAR 19–14 94% +6
2020 Divisional round Browns at Chiefs KC 22–17 88% +12
2020 Week 14 Chiefs at Dolphins KC 33–27 65% +35
2020 Week 13 Lions at Bears DET 34–30 87% +13
2020 Week 12 Washington at Cowboys WAS 41–16 69% +31
2020 Week 10 Eagles at Giants NYG 27–17 84% +16
2020 Week 9 Panthers at Chiefs KC 33–31 47% +53
2020 Week 8 Colts at Lions IND 41–21 80% +20
2020 Week 7 Packers at Texans GB 35–20 86% +14
2020 Week 5 Chargers at Saints NO 30–27 75% +25
2020 Week 4 Browns at Cowboys CLE 49–38 42% +58
2020 Week 3 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 97% +3
2020 Week 2 Jaguars at Titans TEN 33–30 68% +32
2020 Week 1 Chargers at Bengals LAC 16–13 91% +9
2019 Week 17 Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 43% +57
2019 Week 16 Raiders at Chargers OAK 24–17 43% +57
2019 Week 14 Washington at Packers GB 20–15 90% +10
2019 Week 13 Browns at Steelers PIT 20–13 78% +22
2019 Week 12 Buccaneers at Falcons TB 35–22 96% +4
2019 Week 11 Broncos at Vikings MIN 27–23 65% +35
2019 Week 10 Dolphins at Colts MIA 16–12 8% +92
2019 Week 9 Cowboys at Giants DAL 37–18 96% +4
2019 Week 8 Cardinals at Saints NO 31–9 95% +5
2019 Week 6 Bengals at Ravens BAL 23–17 88% +12
2019 Week 5 Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 96% +4
2019 Week 4 Eagles at Packers PHI 34–27 83% +17
2019 Week 3 Texans at Chargers HOU 27–20 39% +61
2019 Week 2 Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 87% +13
2019 Week 1 Bills at Jets BUF 17–16 91% +9