luckadjusted

Wild Card 2021 · January 17, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Rams, Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Cardinals 34–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 11
Los Angeles Rams 34

January 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +5 Rams about even · −5 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 30 LA 23
  2. 2 ARI 21 LA 24
  3. 3 ARI 19 LA 26
  4. 4 ARI 17 LA 26
  5. 5 ARI 17 LA 30
  6. 6 ARI 24 LA 38
  7. 7 ARI 6 LA 24
  8. 8 ARI 13 LA 36
  9. 9 ARI 13 LA 41
  10. 10 ARI 16 LA 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 5% of them, Rams 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.1%
Cardinals by 9–161.0%
Cardinals by 1–83.7%
Level after regulation0.7%
Rams by 1–89.7%
Rams by 9–1622.0%
Rams by 17+62.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 27.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% LA ARI: Punt
2 Q1 12:29 False Start on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2640 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +3% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 11:39 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% ARI LA: Punt
4 Q1 10:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% LA ARI: Punt
5 Q1 3:55 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:39 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Cardinals (Christian Kirk), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2557 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +4% LA ARI: Punt
7 Q2 13:33 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q2 8:07 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +5% LA ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Rapp (LA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ernest Jones (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darrell Henderson (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Robert Alford (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Phillips (ARI DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 23
Luck in points
4.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 27.6
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 5% · Rams 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2021 games · Cardinals · Rams

More from Wild Card 2021