Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Eagles at Titans, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Titans 24–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:44 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 22, worth 18 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 24 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Eagles lucky · −38 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 6, Titans win 4.
- 1 PHI 24 TEN 3
- 2 PHI 23 TEN 7
- 3 PHI 21 TEN 10
- 4 PHI 17 TEN 10
- 5 PHI 7 TEN 3
- 6 PHI 20 TEN 19
- 7 PHI 14 TEN 16
- 8 PHI 16 TEN 20
- 9 PHI 17 TEN 26
- 10 PHI 14 TEN 30
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Eagles by 7.1, 71% to win. The Eagles won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.1 points from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Eagles win | 71.0% |
| Titans win | 29.0% |
| Middle 50%: Eagles by 16 to Titans by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Eagles by 28 to Titans by 14 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Eagles by 32 to Titans by 18 | 95% |
| Exactly Eagles by 3 | 8.2% |
| Exactly Titans by 3 | 6.4% |
| Exactly Eagles by 7 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Eagles by 14 | 5.0% |
| Exactly Eagles by 10 | 4.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 62% of them, Titans 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 11.8% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 31.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| Titans by 17+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 60% expected
- J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Eagles 4 for 35 yards, Titans 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:28 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jacob Martin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% PHI +2.5 pts |
| Q2 10:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Calvin Ridley), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:22 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 5 yards | +4% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +5% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Titans (Joey Slye), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:39 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards | +4% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:21 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +6% PHI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PHI +0.4 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:17 | The Titans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:03 | J. Slye made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +9% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:03 | The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:21 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 2:44 | The Titans converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +18% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:56 | D. Wicks dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 137 catchable balls before this | +10% TEN | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:48 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +17% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:20 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +12% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kendell Brooks (TEN DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jaylen Harrell (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 45% · Titans 55%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 62% · Titans 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Eagles · 
Titans
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner