Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Jaguars at Broncos, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Jaguars 20–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:11 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Broncos lucky · −40 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Broncos win 6.
- 1 JAX 26 DEN 9
- 2 JAX 27 DEN 17
- 3 JAX 12 DEN 6
- 4 JAX 23 DEN 21
- 5 JAX 17 DEN 19
- 6 JAX 20 DEN 24
- 7 JAX 17 DEN 24
- 8 JAX 7 DEN 19
- 9 JAX 10 DEN 27
- 10 JAX 20 DEN 41
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Jaguars by 1.3, 54% to win. The Broncos won by 7, a result we gave 46%. The final margin was 8.3 points from ours; 50% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jaguars win | 54.0% |
| Broncos win | 46.0% |
| Middle 50%: Jaguars by 10 to Broncos by 7 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Jaguars by 23 to Broncos by 20 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Jaguars by 27 to Broncos by 24 | 95% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Broncos by 3 | 8.2% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 7 | 5.2% |
| Exactly Broncos by 7 | 4.7% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 10 | 3.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 40% of them, Broncos 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 12.4% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 30.3% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 12.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Little, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Little, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 76% expected
- C. Little, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 3 for 18 yards, Broncos 10 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:36 | False Start on the Broncos (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:13 | Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% JAX +2.2 pts |
| Q1 9:05 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 10 yards | +3% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:32 | Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Parker Washington), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% DEN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:06 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:34 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JAX +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:08 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DEN +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Alex Singleton), 3 yards | +1% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:11 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:53 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 7:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 3 yards | +8% DEN +2.4 pts |
| Q4 6:03 | Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards | +1% JAX +0.3 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:11 | The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% JAX | JAX: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:13 | Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2666 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 | +8% JAX | JAX: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 2:08 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:52 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:11 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +12% JAX | JAX: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:50 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% DEN | JAX: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:45 | C. Little missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before | +8% DEN | JAX: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 3 yardsJudgment calls | +8% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- RJ Harvey (DEN RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 39% · Broncos 61%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 40% · Broncos 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Jaguars · 
Broncos
More from Week 2 2026
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