luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Jaguars at Broncos, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jaguars 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:15 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Denver Broncos 20

September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +40 Broncos lucky · −40 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 24 DEN 6
  2. 2 JAX 17 DEN 6
  3. 3 JAX 13 DEN 6
  4. 4 JAX 13 DEN 10
  5. 5 JAX 17 DEN 19
  6. 6 JAX 20 DEN 24
  7. 7 JAX 20 DEN 27
  8. 8 JAX 21 DEN 31
  9. 9 JAX 13 DEN 27
  10. 10 JAX 7 DEN 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 40% of them, Broncos 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.7%
Jaguars by 9–1612.1%
Jaguars by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
Broncos by 1–829.8%
Broncos by 9–1617.0%
Broncos by 17+12.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 0.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Little, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:13 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2666 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q2 2:15 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% JAX DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 2:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q3 1:40 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% DEN JAX: Missed field goal
5 Q4 13:52 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:11 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q4 9:45 C. Little missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before +8% DEN JAX: Punt
8 Q4 7:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 3 yardsJudgment calls +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • RJ Harvey (DEN RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 46% · Broncos 54%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
6.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 40% · Broncos 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Jaguars · Broncos

More from Week 2 2026