Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Panthers at Falcons, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Falcons 34–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Panthers about even · −5 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 10, Falcons win 0.
- 1 CAR 40 ATL 5
- 2 CAR 26 ATL 0
- 3 CAR 27 ATL 6
- 4 CAR 26 ATL 7
- 5 CAR 22 ATL 6
- 6 CAR 30 ATL 17
- 7 CAR 27 ATL 17
- 8 CAR 21 ATL 13
- 9 CAR 15 ATL 10
- 10 CAR 23 ATL 20
Your call
Did the Panthers earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Falcons by 8.5, 75% to win. The Panthers won by 31, a result we gave 25%. The final margin was 39.5 points from ours; fewer than 1% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Panthers win | 25.2% |
| Falcons win | 74.8% |
| Middle 50%: Panthers by 1 to Falcons by 17 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Panthers by 13 to Falcons by 29 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Panthers by 17 to Falcons by 34 | 95% |
| Exactly Falcons by 3 | 7.9% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Falcons by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Falcons by 14 | 5.3% |
| Exactly Falcons by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 95% of them, Falcons 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 64.9% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 9.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Fitzgerald, 37 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- N. Folk, 41 yds made · 91% expected
- N. Folk, 53 yds missed · 76% expected
Penalties: Panthers 9 for 63 yards, Falcons 6 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:13 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:17 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 10 yards | +3% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q1 12:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Gervon Dexter), 3 yards | +1% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:38 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:59 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:29 | Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ATL +2.1 pts |
| Q2 5:54 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kendal Daniels), 10 yards | +2% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:48 | Face Mask on the Falcons, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CAR +3.0 pts |
| Q2 4:14 | False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:16 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:44 | Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:44 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 9 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ATL +2.5 pts |
| Q4 12:20 | Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% ATL +2.2 pts |
| Q4 6:08 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CAR +1.7 pts |
Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | The Falcons fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CAR | ATL: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:51 | The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:20 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% CAR | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:50 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 7:17 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 5:48 | Face Mask on the Falcons, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:24 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Taylor Moton (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Nic Scourton (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 100% · Falcons 0%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 31
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 21.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 95% · Falcons 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Panthers · 
Falcons
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