luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Panthers at Falcons, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 34–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.9 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:07 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 34
Atlanta Falcons 3

September 20, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +13 Panthers about even · −13 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 9, Falcons win 1.

  1. 1 CAR 34 ATL 6
  2. 2 CAR 24 ATL 0
  3. 3 CAR 27 ATL 10
  4. 4 CAR 31 ATL 16
  5. 5 CAR 23 ATL 10
  6. 6 CAR 30 ATL 20
  7. 7 CAR 10 ATL 3
  8. 8 CAR 12 ATL 7
  9. 9 CAR 15 ATL 13
  10. 10 CAR 26 ATL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 87% of them, Falcons 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+43.2%
Panthers by 9–1623.0%
Panthers by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Falcons by 1–88.7%
Falcons by 9–163.1%
Falcons by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 23.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 90% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Falcons fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR ATL: Turnover
2 Q1 10:51 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:07 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% CAR ATL: Punt
4 Q1 1:20 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% CAR ATL: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q2 8:50 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q2 5:48 Face Mask on the Falcons, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:24 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nic Scourton (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 31
Luck in points
7.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 23.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 87% · Falcons 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Panthers · Falcons

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