Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Commanders at Cowboys, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Commanders 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:52 left): Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 20 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Cowboys about even · −18 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Cowboys win 8.
- 1 WAS 28 DAL 17
- 2 WAS 27 DAL 24
- 3 WAS 24 DAL 27
- 4 WAS 30 DAL 34
- 5 WAS 24 DAL 31
- 6 WAS 17 DAL 27
- 7 WAS 14 DAL 26
- 8 WAS 9 DAL 24
- 9 WAS 23 DAL 42
- 10 WAS 6 DAL 33
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Cowboys by 4.2, 63% to win. The Cowboys won by 17: the pick was right. The final margin was 12.8 points from ours; 31% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Commanders win | 37.1% |
| Cowboys win | 62.9% |
| Middle 50%: Commanders by 4 to Cowboys by 13 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Commanders by 17 to Cowboys by 25 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Commanders by 21 to Cowboys by 29 | 95% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 3 | 8.6% |
| Exactly Commanders by 3 | 7.4% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 7 | 5.6% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 14 | 4.3% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 10 | 4.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 18% of them, Cowboys 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 10.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 29.7% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 29.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 25 yds made · 100% expected
- D. Stevens, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- D. Stevens, 47 yds made · 79% expected
- B. Aubrey, 44 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Stevens, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
- B. Aubrey, 60 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Commanders 5 for 38 yards, Cowboys 5 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:52 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% DAL +3.3 pts |
| Q1 3:05 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), 9 yards, wiping out the play | +3% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Jeremy Reaves), 9 yards | +3% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:21 | Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Cowboys (Jalen Thompson), 7 yards | +1% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q3 6:27 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WAS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:22 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:49 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards | +5% DAL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:03 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Curtis Robinson), 10 yards | 0% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:23 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards | +1% WAS +0.5 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:52 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 18 flags in 3818 snaps before, position avg 1 per 302 | +8% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 2:24 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +5% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:03 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +6% DAL | WAS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 12:55 | D. Stevens made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +5% WAS | WAS: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 11:26 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:04 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% WAS | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 7:15 | The Commanders fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% DAL | WAS: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 2:49 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Malik Hooker (DAL S), out · 0.3 pts
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Frankie Luvu (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 1% · Cowboys 99%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 14.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 18% · Cowboys 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Commanders · 
Cowboys
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