luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Packers at Jets, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Jets 20–17, but the Jets played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.8 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:20 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 20
New York Jets 17

September 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +66 Packers very lucky · −66 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 GB 25 NYJ 9
  2. 2 GB 23 NYJ 16
  3. 3 GB 16 NYJ 14
  4. 4 GB 7 NYJ 9
  5. 5 GB 17 NYJ 21
  6. 6 GB 9 NYJ 16
  7. 7 GB 13 NYJ 23
  8. 8 GB 10 NYJ 23
  9. 9 GB 13 NYJ 30
  10. 10 GB 14 NYJ 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 34% of them, Jets 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+5.2%
Packers by 9–1611.2%
Packers by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation2.2%
Jets by 1–826.1%
Jets by 9–1619.3%
Jets by 17+18.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 7.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Smack, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • T. Smack, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:14 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB GB: Punt
2 Q3 7:44 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% GB GB: Punt
3 Q3 0:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q4 9:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 459 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:09 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYJ GB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:20 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +24% GB NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 0:02 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NYJ GB: Field goal
8 QOT 6:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 1449 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +17% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 77% · Jets 23%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
4.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 34% · Jets 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Packers · Jets

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