Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Packers at Jets, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Jets 20–17, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.
Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:20 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final (OT)
 Green Bay Packers | 20 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Packers very lucky · −64 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 GB 27 NYJ 7
- 2 GB 27 NYJ 16
- 3 GB 23 NYJ 17
- 4 GB 17 NYJ 14
- 5 GB 13 NYJ 15
- 6 GB 17 NYJ 21
- 7 GB 16 NYJ 23
- 8 GB 23 NYJ 33
- 9 GB 20 NYJ 34
- 10 GB 16 NYJ 37
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Jets by 0.6, 52% to win. The Packers won by 3, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 3.6 points from ours; 74% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Packers win | 48.2% |
| Jets win | 51.8% |
| Middle 50%: Packers by 8 to Jets by 10 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Packers by 21 to Jets by 21 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Packers by 25 to Jets by 26 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Packers by 3 | 8.3% |
| Exactly Jets by 7 | 5.1% |
| Exactly Packers by 7 | 4.9% |
| Exactly Jets by 10 | 3.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 36% of them, Jets 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 5.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 26.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Jets by 17+ | 17.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- T. Smack, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- T. Smack, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Packers 14 for 133 yards, Jets 13 for 156 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:05 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q1 11:10 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q1 10:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 15 yards | +4% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:54 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kamal Hadden), 7 yards | +2% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:43 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Christian Watson), 4 yards | +2% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:52 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 10 yards | +3% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:51 | Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 5 yards | +1% GB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:20 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 34 yards | +5% NYJ +1.9 pts |
| Q2 4:09 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Braiden McGregor), 10 yards | +3% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Dani Dennis-Sutton), 3 yards | +1% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandon Stephens), 23 yards | +4% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:37 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:44 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (David Bailey), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 6 yards | +3% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Geno Smith), 15 yards | +6% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:04 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Chris McClellan), 14 yards | +6% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:08 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:12 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% NYJ +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q4 9:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 38 yards | +9% GB +2.6 pts |
| Q4 7:58 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Isaiah Davis), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.2 pts |
| OT 8:23 | False Start on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.3 pts |
| OT 6:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yards | +15% GB +1.1 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:14 | The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% GB | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 7:44 | The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +9% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 459 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 3:09 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +9% NYJ | GB: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:20 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +24% GB | NYJ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:05 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% NYJ | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:02 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +8% NYJ | GB: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 6:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 1449 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 | +15% GB | GB: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 84% · Jets 16%
- Final margin
- Packers by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 8.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 36% · Jets 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Packers · 
Jets
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