2026 season · in progress

New York Jets, 2026: game by game

The Jets went 2–7 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–5.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Titans	W 23–10	73%	+27
Week 2	vs Packers	L 17–20	64%	−64
Week 3	@ Lions	L 24–31	7%	−7
Week 4	@ Bears	L 12–23	6%	−6
Week 5	vs Browns	W 17–12	85%	+15
Week 6	@ Patriots	L 19–26	45%	−45
Week 7	vs Dolphins	L 25–28	21%	−21
Week 8	vs Raiders	L 33–38	51%	−51
Week 9	@ Chiefs	L 12–35	13%	−13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +27 @ TEN

Wk 2 −64 vs GB

Wk 3 −7 @ DET

Wk 4 −6 @ CHI

Wk 5 +15 vs CLE

Wk 6 −45 @ NE

Wk 7 −21 vs MIA

Wk 8 −51 vs LV

Wk 9 −13 @ KC

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Jets win chance
Week 10 · Nov 15	vs Bills	Bills by 7.3	29%
Week 11 · Nov 22	at Chargers	Jets by 0.2	51%
Week 12 · Nov 29	at Dolphins	Dolphins by 0.9	47%
Week 14 · Dec 13	vs Broncos	Broncos by 3.4	40%
Week 15 · Dec 20	at Cardinals	Cardinals by 0.7	48%
Week 16 · Dec 27	vs Patriots	Patriots by 4.8	36%
Week 17 · Jan 3	vs Vikings	Vikings by 2.0	44%
Week 18 · Jan 10	at Bills	Bills by 12.0	18%

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.12	+5.3
Injuries	+0.06	+1.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.02	−4.1
Rest	−0.06	−2.4
Fumble bounces	−0.14	+0.7
Judgment calls	−0.32	−13.0