luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

New York Jets, 2026: game by game

The Jets went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Titans W 23–10 81% +19
Week 2 vs Packers L 17–20 66% −66

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Jets’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+3.1+1.57
3rd & 4th downs+2.4+1.21
Injuries+1.7+0.85
Drops+1.1+0.55
Kicks−0.9−0.47
Judgment calls−6.8−3.38