2026 season · in progress
Philadelphia Eagles, 2026: game by game
The Eagles went 2–7 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–3.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Commanders | W 24–22 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 2 | @ Titans | W 24–20 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 3 | @ Bears | L 7–27 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 4 | vs Rams | L 20–24 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 5 | vs Jaguars | L 17–19 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 6 | vs Panthers | L 14–25 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 7 | vs Cowboys | L 21–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 8 | @ Commanders | L 10–27 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | vs Giants | L 11–19 | 48% | −48 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Eagles win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | vs Steelers |  Steelers by 3.3 | 40% |
| Week 12 · Nov 26 | at Cowboys |  Cowboys by 7.0 | 30% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Cardinals |  Cardinals by 0.9 | 47% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | vs Colts |  Eagles by 2.8 | 58% |
| Week 15 · Dec 19 | vs Seahawks |  Seahawks by 4.0 | 38% |
| Week 16 · Dec 24 | vs Texans |  Texans by 2.1 | 44% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at 49ers |  49ers by 12.1 | 18% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | at Giants |  Giants by 4.8 | 36% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.37 | +10.5 |
| Drops | +0.20 | +7.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.05 | −3.7 |
| Rest | −0.12 | −4.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.27 | −4.2 |
| Kicks | −0.36 | −2.7 |
| Injuries | −0.43 | −16.3 |