luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Vikings at Bears, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): C. Santos made a 48-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 30
Chicago Bears 27

November 24, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +11 Vikings about even · −11 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 37 CHI 3
  2. 2 MIN 51 CHI 26
  3. 3 MIN 30 CHI 9
  4. 4 MIN 27 CHI 10
  5. 5 MIN 41 CHI 27
  6. 6 MIN 41 CHI 30
  7. 7 MIN 16 CHI 8
  8. 8 MIN 20 CHI 15
  9. 9 MIN 12 CHI 10
  10. 10 MIN 30 CHI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 89% of them, Bears 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+50.6%
Vikings by 9–1620.3%
Vikings by 1–816.6%
Level after regulation2.0%
Bears by 1–87.0%
Bears by 9–162.6%
Bears by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Vikings by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 48 yds blocked · 77% expected
  • C. Santos, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Romo, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Romo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Romo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 45 yards, Bears 7 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIN +1.6 pts
Q1 5:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 10 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q1 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Noah Sewell), 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 0:12 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Darrell Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 7:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 35 yards +8% MIN +2.8 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 7:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 10 yards +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q4 13:59 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% CHI +1.2 pts
Q4 3:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Brandon Powell), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CHI +6.1 pts
OT 8:22 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% MIN +0.7 pts
OT 5:43 False Start on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CHI +0.5 pts
OT 5:03 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% CHI +1.5 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:54 The Vikings fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CHI MIN: Punt
2 Q2 11:49 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
3 Q2 7:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 35 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3934 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:03 C. Santos made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 35 of 49 from 45+ before +12% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 0:22 The Bears’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOnside kick recovered by the BearsSpecial teams +15% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q4 0:03 C. Santos made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 36 of 50 from 45+ before +19% CHI CHI: Punt
7 OT 6:23 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +15% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 OT 5:03 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Hicks (CHI FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Bates (CHI C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Oliver (MIN TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 78% · Bears 22%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
3.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 89% · Bears 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Vikings · Bears

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