luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Patriots at Dolphins, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 34–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 1.6 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:13 left): J. Slye missed 45-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New England Patriots 15
Miami Dolphins 34

November 24, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −7.5

Luck index +10 Dolphins about even · −10 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Dolphins win 9.

  1. 1 NE 19 MIA 14
  2. 2 NE 27 MIA 29
  3. 3 NE 15 MIA 20
  4. 4 NE 16 MIA 24
  5. 5 NE 10 MIA 21
  6. 6 NE 13 MIA 27
  7. 7 NE 6 MIA 23
  8. 8 NE 3 MIA 23
  9. 9 NE 10 MIA 35
  10. 10 NE 9 MIA 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 10% of them, Dolphins 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.6%
Patriots by 9–162.4%
Patriots by 1–86.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Dolphins by 1–817.0%
Dolphins by 9–1620.1%
Dolphins by 17+52.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 7:24 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% NE NE: Missed field goal
3 Q1 4:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:13 J. Slye missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 42 of 63 from 45+ before +9% MIA NE: Punt
5 Q2 14:16 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:26 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +3% MIA NE: Punt
7 Q2 7:50 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:19 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 11% · Dolphins 89%

Final margin
Dolphins by 19
Luck in points
8.5 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 10% · Dolphins 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Patriots · Dolphins

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