luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

49ers at Packers, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the 49ers 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.7 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:00 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 10
Green Bay Packers 38

November 24, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −6.5

Luck index +5 Packers about even · −5 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 SF 27 GB 20
  2. 2 SF 21 GB 24
  3. 3 SF 24 GB 30
  4. 4 SF 10 GB 19
  5. 5 SF 10 GB 23
  6. 6 SF 27 GB 42
  7. 7 SF 13 GB 31
  8. 8 SF 17 GB 40
  9. 9 SF 3 GB 29
  10. 10 SF 10 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 5% of them, Packers 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+0.3%
49ers by 9–160.9%
49ers by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Packers by 1–87.8%
Packers by 9–1618.8%
Packers by 17+67.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 14.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Moody, 48 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:29 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:16 B. McManus made 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 57 of 83 from 45+ before +4% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:20 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% SF SF: Punt
4 Q2 12:10 The Packers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:05 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q3 10:51 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +5% GB SF: Turnover
8 Q3 6:00 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% GB SF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by b.allen · 9.0 pts
  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out · 1.2 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mitch Wishnowsky (SF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 28
Luck in points
13.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
49ers 5% · Packers 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 49ers · Packers

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